Re: The Death of the DSLR

[mjperini]

Bob,
Interesting article, Thanks
Regarding the Reasons for the decline, certainly as you point out, the ubiquity and connectivity of the smart phone can't be underestimated in it's impact on compact cameras.
Smart phones literally forced people to 'have a camera with them' and the connectivity allowed near effortless sharing in real time- something we never really had before.
People liked it.
But your numbers also point out the surprising relative strength strength of the DSLR market, so the market for quality is still a driver of people's buying habits.
Wouldn't you think that a good part of the 'softness' in the 'enthusiast / professional camera market is due at least in part to 'Sufficiency'--- almost all recent cameras are amazingly good.
We may look with interest at the newest cameras, but they are not as easy to justify on a "will it help me take significantly better pictures" basis. Now more often we are 'Photographer Limited" rather than "Camera Limited".
Even if we do give in and buy a new camera, our upgrade cycle is probably extended. Even if every enthusiast/ pro owner extended a few months, or one camera cycle, that results in many fewer cmeras being sold per year, but doesn't really mean that there is less interest in high end photography
Add to that the fact that higher end camera are upgraded less frequently than they used to be (because true noticeable change is getting harder to accomplish)

In my own case, I shot film on Nikon & Hasselblad & view cameras.  When I went digital I switched to Canon mostly beause my Nikon reps maintained that 'Full frame was not necessary' and in my head FF seemed inevitable. So I bought a 20D and 3 FF Canon lenses, Then a 40D both of which I loved and still own and use (because each is good enough for certain tasks) Then I went to a 1Ds mk III in 2007.
I'm entering my SEVENTH Year with that camera because Canon has not yet made a high MP successor (and because it's still a superb camera)

My Wife & Daughter shoot Weddings and Events. My wife with 2 7D's (superb camera in all but high iso) and My daughter shoots Nikon-- 2 D700's & 2 D300's on which she has about a Billion clicks (give or take) and is worried that Nikon has never replaced either of her cameras. She doesn't want a D800 with 75mp files, and doesn't really want the expense of a D4. Having a pro quality Crop frame camera provides a lot of flexibility for her, but she doesn't want a plastic one.
So I think the camera companies themselves are at least a small part of the cause here.
It's always possible that we get a big jump in technology that makes the newest camera hard to resist, I hope we do. But the better cameras get, and the more of them that are out there (we're still selling millions of cameras) the greater the likelihood that more of us will find that the camera we have is truly Sufficient (or at a minimum Sufficient for a longer period of time)

We also tend to forget that Digital is no longer 'New'. There are no longer large numbers of enthusiast camera users who need to switch from film. That part is so done we now see renewed interest in film as a niche. (which is great) but nearly all enthusiast photographers now have a pretty good digital camera. The heady days of the film to digital revolution are over. We should remember that in the film days, we didn't change cameras nearly as often.  We got our new sensors when Kodak or Fuji released a new film.  So slower replacement of cameras may be the 'new normal'

Another possibility is the new car analogy, in periods of economic stress we keep them longer, but at some point the pent up demand for new breaks out and we have a big year.

I'd be interested to know what other's think.
Michael

[bmpress]

Michel,

Beyond your logic which is valid for current camera applicatons,  we could break out of the cycle of mini improvements and dream about new imaging systems that would fire the imagination, and which might be done by non-traditional companies who would explode the market in new directions. Just imagine,  for example,  that you could purchase a remote camera system that could fly with the birds with computer control to acquire your target and prevent crashes. And suppose such a package could be had for bridge hundreds of dollars. Imagine the excitement. I guess my point is that new,  exciting ideas could drive explosive market growth in new directions. And the traditional companies might be left in the dust...

Barry

[mjperini]

Barry,
Good point, the most popular camera on the planet, (the iPhone) didn't exist a few years ago. And I am constantly amazed at how sophisticated it is for stills video, panorama and real time sharing.

And yes all it takes is some breakthrough technology for enthusiast or professional cameras that changes the game,  and we'll all be lining up to partake.  Even Canon who says so little about future products has made statements that the next high end camera  won't be introduced until it has a major breakthrough.(or words to that effect)  One wouldn't think they would make statements like that without SOMETHING interesting in the pipeline .
And speaking of flying with the birds, there is a new drone or copter released every month, -some with built in cameras & wiFi, so your idea may not be as far off as you think.
None of us can do much besides watch and wait and take the best pictures we can with the cameras we have.
But it is fun to think about it.
Michael