7D Mark ii ---Will we ever see one??

[gkmusser]

Hi Bob,

I currently have the 40D and I remember waiting patiently (with excitment) for it to come out (I think you got one at the same time?) as I had been using the original Digital Rebel and was looking to upgrade to the next level.  Last summer...after month's of debating...I decided that I would like to upgrade to the next level again.

I looked at the 5D Mark III, but given the price tag, I just couldn't justify spending that much money without my wife making me sleep on the couch with it =)...given I have a child starting college next year. In addition, I own a 10-22 EF-S lens which wouldn't work on the full frame, so I decided that the 7D would be make the most sense.  However, given that it has been a few years since it's release, I was quite certain that a "7D Mark ii" was just around the corner, so I decided to wait patiently and enjoy keeping tabs on all the rumors until the new 7D was released.

To make a long story short....I'm still waiting!  Is it me, or does it seem like the "refresh period" for the 7D is way overdue?  I know the 7D had a firmware update last fall, but I really thought we might see something else in the fall...but that passed.  I thought we might see something in early 2013...but that passed.  I thought we might get something this week with Canon's announcement...but that date passed as well with no new 7D. 

In addition, what got announced by Canon yesterday really didn't seem all that exciting.  In fact, looking at your update on the new Rebel...is seems like there was minor changes from the prior version.  I thought that, even if a 7D wasn't released, possibly we would see a 70D...and based on new specs in a camera like that, I'd get an idea of what might be coming in the new 7D...but nothing!!

Is this a normal length of period to go thru without any new releases?  If not, what do you think are the most likely reasons for a delay?  Could Canon be working on a new sensor that they just aren't ready to roll out yet?  I've read some of the posts here about the Sony sensors and the competition Canon has with them.  I'm sure the firmware release last fall meant Canon wouldn't be releasing a new 7D then, but I always thought Canon had a somewhat predictable upgrade cycle for each of their different lines...but I guess I'm wrong.

Given we didn't see anything this week, any new thoughts on when we'll see a 7D Mark ii?  I know you don't have any hard facts...but I'll enjoy your response anyway...and continue to wait patiently for more news!  =)

[Bob Atkins]

Will we see a 70D and 7D mk II? The answer is yes. Unless Canon give up on cameras and start making cell phones, the updates are inevitable. The questions are when and what will the updates look like?

They're overdue, but I have no idea when. If you believe the current rumors, the 70D in a month or so and the 7D MkII later in the year. Of course if you believed the rumors, we'd have had then for a year or two by now!

If Canon don't come up with a new sensor, there will be more than a few disappointed Canon users out there. Canon have been using the same fabrication process and much the same sensor architecture for the last decade. Sony went to higher resolution lithography and on chip A/D converters and their sensors show much higher low ISO dynamic range. Nikon also use those sensors. so if Canon bring out a 70D, or worse a 7D MkII using the existing 18MP sensor it's not going to be very impressive. If they maintain much the same internal architecture and just add some phase sensitive pixels (like the T4i/T5i and Sl1 sensors), it's still not going to please those waiting for the updates.

I posted an article on what the 70D and 7D MkII might be a few months ago - http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/Canon_EOS_70D_7D_II_thoughts.html - most of what I said there still stands, though since the DIGIC 6 processor has now been used in the new powershots I'd hope that the 70D would have the DiGIC 6 and the 7D MkII maybe two of them.

Why the delay? I don't know. Could be development problems with a new sensor, could be like everyone else the state of the economy is forcing cutbacks in R&D (all of which is done in Japan). Could still be the aftermath of the Tsunami. Could be they've just lost their MoJo and have been scooped by Nikon a couple of times. Maybe the 70D was due out but when Nikon launched the D7100 they realized they'd have to do more work to stay competitive. Maybe the 60D and 7D are still selling well enough that Canon want to keep them around for a while longer to maximize their profits.

I picked up a refurbished 7D a while ago and I must say I'm very happy with it indeed. In fact at this point I don't really feel a need to upgrade. I'm not sure what a 7d MkII could have that would induce me to buy one. I don't need more pixels, I don't need GPS and I don't need WiFi. The metering is good, the AF is good, the video is fine (though I've never actually used it except for testing!).

So I'd say that the odds are we'll see a 70D by the summer and a 7D MkII by the end of the year, though I wouldn't be totally stunned if we see neither. Canon have been dangling the 200-400/4L IS USM Extender in front of us for over a year now. It's been built, I've seen two, handled one, there are pictures of them in use yet Canon still haven't started production.

[gkmusser]

Thanks Bob.  Since Nikon and Sony both use the Sony sensor, would Canon ever decide to use it as well rather than continue working on their own?  If not, I would assume they've had enough time to breakdown and understand the technology in the Sony sensor in order to replicate something similar for their own line...and maybe that's what they're working on.

I did seriously consider trading my 40D in on a 7D because I qualified for a trade-in because i kept having AF issues with my 40D.  After sending it back to Canon two times, I think I finally got it fixed...but unfortunately I had it for several years before sending it in and kept thinking I was the problem!  Anyway, I decided that since a new 7D release was expected soon (or so i thought), I figured I'd wait and hope for a nice jump in technology if I was going to spend $$ on a new body.  I do a lot of sports (such as in school gyms), as well as concerts inside where its really low light, so I'd really like to upgrade to a body with better performance in low light. 

[Bob Atkins]

Canon would never use a Sony sensor in a DSLR. It would pretty much be admitting defeat. Canon do have high resolution lithography capability, but as long as they can keep using the old process they can make more money since by now the R&D and the fabrication process has probably all been paid for.

I don't know what the patent situation is on sensor design and integration of electronics. I'm sure Canon know every detail of the Sony sensors since I'd assume they've taken them apart and reverse engineered them under an electron microscope. They wouldn't want to copy them and I'm sure Sony have some patents, but how close Canon could get and whether or not Canon have their own ideas I don't know.

Canon have demonstrated some pretty advanced sensors. Back in 2010 they showed a 120MP APS-H format sensor (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/canon_150MP_apsh_sensor.html) and they recently announced a full frame HD sensor (http://www.bobatkins.com/blog/new-canon-35mm-full-frame-cmos-video-sensor/) so they're clearly looking at sensors and sensor technology. Maybe they're spending their R&D bucks on video gear. They have some pretty good cinematography gear and they do a lot of broadcast TV related work. Maybe that's taking precedence over DSLR development?

The 7D is still very good and a nice improvement over the 40D. My 40D is sitting on a shelf gathering dust. There are pretty good deals on refurbished 7Ds too. I suspect a 7D MkII might be in the $1600-$1800 range (just a guess, I could be wrong, it depends how much they stuff into it like GPS, WiFi etc.)

• 7D Refurb at Adorama - $969
• 7D refurb at B&H - $969

[gkmusser]

Bob...in light of some of the features now found in the 70D that was just released, what are your thoughts on where Canon will go with a 7D Mark II...if/when they finally release it?

I'm also curious to see some reviews on the new sensor in the 70D...

[Bob Atkins]

I'm pretty sure we will see a 7D MkII. The main question is whether it will be in 2013 or 2014. As for what it will be, my thoughts are pretty much the same as they were when I wrote this article:

http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/Canon_EOS_70D_7D_II_thoughts.html

The 70D specs make me think that the 7D MkII AF system will be tweaked over that of the 7D. I'm sure we'll also see a sensor with at least 20MP, though whether it will be the same identical sensor as in the 70D I don't know. I'd presume that Canon will go with something having the same phase sensitive dual pixels as the 70D unless there's some downside to that scheme that Canon haven't yet told us about!

I don't have any strong feelings/gut instincts/inside knowledge of when a 7D MkII might appear. I'd be pretty surprised if it appeared on the shelves before December 2013. I would not be at all surprised if it was not available until sometime later in 2014.